We have been asked several times our thoughts on the present state of the US economy and where Extreme Event Risk sees the annual direction we are headed.

We believe there is a fundamental shift in the labour market since the pandemic began and that capacity still exists that is not captured in the current 3.6% unemployment rate.

While it appears we are headed into a recessionary environment, the Fed’s neutral position will bring us to a relatively soft landing over the next 2-4 quarters.

Inflation based on high fossil fuel prices based on supply changes due to the war in Europe and supply chain shocks from China and some weak supply chain management systems will adjust over the next 1-2 quarters to bring prices back to earth.